Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,444
2 Rhode Island 143,383
3 South Dakota 140,423
4 Utah 126,811
5 Tennessee 124,302
6 Arizona 121,225
7 Iowa 117,789
8 Wisconsin 115,922
9 Nebraska 115,505
10 South Carolina 115,276
11 Oklahoma 114,553
12 New Jersey 114,472
13 Arkansas 113,225
14 Delaware 111,845
15 Indiana 111,079
16 Alabama 111,070
17 Illinois 109,491
18 Kansas 108,567
19 Florida 108,390
20 New York 108,027
21 Idaho 107,747
22 Mississippi 106,801
23 Minnesota 106,698
24 Nevada 105,410
25 Montana 104,894
26 Wyoming 104,418
27 Georgia 103,592
28 Kentucky 103,127
29 Massachusetts 102,613
30 Texas 101,897
31 Louisiana 101,597
32 Missouri 100,400
33 Michigan 99,299
34 Connecticut 97,517
35 New Mexico 96,918
36 California 95,965
37 North Carolina 95,747
38 Alaska 95,377
39 Colorado 95,008
40 Pennsylvania 94,370
41 Ohio 94,352
42 West Virginia 90,375
43 Virginia 79,173
44 Maryland 76,132
45 New Hampshire 72,655
46 District of Columbia 69,445
47 Washington 57,733
48 Puerto Rico 53,976
49 Maine 50,497
50 Oregon 47,911
51 Vermont 38,834
52 Hawaii 24,798

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Wyoming 166
2 West Virginia 126
3 Louisiana 116
4 Florida 111
5 Nevada 100
6 Washington 93
7 Idaho 87
8 Alabama 81
9 North Carolina 73
10 Colorado 72
11 Alaska 66
12 Oregon 64
13 Montana 63
14 New Mexico 63
15 Arizona 58
16 District of Columbia 53
17 Kentucky 50
18 Mississippi 50
19 Missouri 50
20 Kansas 49
21 Michigan 49
22 North Dakota 48
23 Rhode Island 47
24 Utah 47
25 Illinois 46
26 Pennsylvania 44
27 Oklahoma 42
28 Tennessee 42
29 Wisconsin 42
30 Indiana 38
31 Arkansas 37
32 Texas 37
33 Maine 35
34 Connecticut 31
35 Delaware 30
36 Georgia 29
37 South Carolina 28
38 Ohio 27
39 Iowa 26
40 Hawaii 24
41 New York 24
42 South Dakota 24
43 New Jersey 23
44 California 21
45 Puerto Rico 20
46 Maryland 15
47 Massachusetts 15
48 Minnesota 15
49 New Hampshire 15
50 Virginia 15
51 Nebraska 13
52 Vermont 12

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,954
2 New York 2,713
3 Massachusetts 2,594
4 Rhode Island 2,560
5 Mississippi 2,460
6 Arizona 2,424
7 Connecticut 2,313
8 South Dakota 2,282
9 Louisiana 2,279
10 Alabama 2,277
11 Pennsylvania 2,133
12 Michigan 2,043
13 New Mexico 2,036
14 Indiana 2,025
15 North Dakota 2,024
16 Illinois 1,991
17 Arkansas 1,933
18 Iowa 1,921
19 Georgia 1,903
20 South Carolina 1,891
21 Oklahoma 1,848
22 Nevada 1,815
23 Tennessee 1,810
24 Texas 1,784
25 Kansas 1,755
26 Florida 1,719
27 Delaware 1,710
28 Ohio 1,704
29 District of Columbia 1,608
30 California 1,601
31 Kentucky 1,593
32 Maryland 1,591
33 Missouri 1,582
34 West Virginia 1,562
35 Montana 1,516
36 Wisconsin 1,355
37 Minnesota 1,333
38 Virginia 1,312
39 North Carolina 1,251
40 Wyoming 1,244
41 Nebraska 1,231
42 Idaho 1,174
43 Colorado 1,169
44 New Hampshire 995
45 Puerto Rico 785
46 Washington 767
47 Utah 718
48 Oregon 641
49 Maine 615
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 408
52 Hawaii 351

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kentucky 13
2 South Dakota 3
3 Wisconsin 3
4 Florida 2
5 Montana 2
6 Oklahoma 2
7 Alabama 1
8 Delaware 1
9 District of Columbia 1
10 Idaho 1
11 Illinois 1
12 Louisiana 1
13 Michigan 1
14 Mississippi 1
15 Missouri 1
16 New Jersey 1
17 Ohio 1
18 Oregon 1
19 Pennsylvania 1
20 Rhode Island 1
21 Tennessee 1
22 Virginia 1
23 Washington 1
24 West Virginia 1
25 Alaska 0
26 Arizona 0
27 Arkansas 0
28 California 0
29 Colorado 0
30 Connecticut 0
31 Georgia 0
32 Hawaii 0
33 Indiana 0
34 Iowa 0
35 Kansas 0
36 Maine 0
37 Maryland 0
38 Massachusetts 0
39 Minnesota 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 Nevada 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Mexico 0
44 New York 0
45 North Carolina 0
46 North Dakota 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 South Carolina 0
49 Texas 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 392,225 1 99
Crowley Colorado 363,966 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,493 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,339 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,314 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,126 193 93
York South Carolina 113,564 988 68
Richland South Carolina 113,448 992 68
Orange California 85,717 2264 27
Pierce Washington 61,261 2835 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,041 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,596 1855 40
Richland South Carolina 1,373 2102 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,371 2104 33
York South Carolina 1,370 2108 32
Pierce Washington 771 2728 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons